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The many poor and disadvantaged people around the world would like greater access to fossil fuels and electricity, which would allow them to increase their expenditure of external energy exosomatic energy, outside their metabolism in order to work themselves up from the drudgery and terror of surviving at a subsistence level, to safer more secure and comfortable modes of living. Many of the fortunate people experiencing relatively secure lives within the advanced highly developed economies of the First World would like greater access to, and cheaper prices for, exosomatic energy so as to extend the scope of their materialistic pleasures. Whether justified or unjustified, most people want more exosomatic power, and that demand drives the relentless expansion in the use of fossil fuels; and so global warming advances. What should you do about climate change?There are as many answers to this question as there are commentators, critics, charlatans, careerists, environmentalists, philosophers, politicians, preachers, scientists, sages, saviors, speculators, know it alls and know nothings with an axe to grind. The purpose of this essay is to whet your Occams Razor to slice through it all. Consider the following Bayesian Statistics model problem, Four Societies, an abstraction of an extremely complex what to do about climate change reality, to help organize our thoughts in hopes of eventually pointing to the correct actions we, individually, should take. The purpose of Bayesian analysis is to logically select the best course of action from a set of available options, despite uncertainties about the probabilities of the outcomes that may occur, and where the decision making process takes into account your own personal preferences regarding those outcomes. You can easily learn the mechanics of basic Bayesian analysis by looking up articles on the Prisoners Dilemma. Also, I give a patient explanation of decision making using Bayesian statistics, with examples, at . Four options for configuring our society are presented above Bayesian outcomes, two capitalist and two socialist. For each of the capitalist and socialist formats there are two economic modes: politically unrestricted economic growth, and highly regulated and politically programmed economic contraction.

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You do want lots of marks, dont you?So now it comes down to how you present the argument: the explanation part. Youll already have begun moving into this phase by including the details of your example. Now you want to clearly demonstrate to the judge that this example proves your overall argument. A good way to do this is to relate the example to a broad concept within your subject that supports your argument. This could be a political or philosophical framework in English Literature, or an overarching theory in another discipline. For example, to more completely integrate the facetious example about selling sea shells in a previous post, you could say that this represents a 150% increase in global sales compared to last year. This means we can afford to invest in the new wheelbarrow because well be able to recoup the costs and well be well positioned to sell sea shells at the Rugby World Cup 2011. If it was a marketing focused essay, then Id talk about the branding benefits and sustainable competitive advantage that Rugby World Cup exposure might generate. If it were a finance focused question, Id mention the projected value this project would add to the firm. If the example has been quite long, its good to restate the main point of the example briefly too. Explain the bigger implications of examples to get more marks.

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Thedriver had only to slam down the hand throttle for it to accelerateimpressively with a thunderous roar for twenty yards and then coast majesticallyfor hundreds of yards up hills and around curves. Officials asked him about the large and illegal boardbuilt up behind the seats. Conoulty hoped it would act like the sail of a yacht. He told them it was to stop children throwing stones at him. The tricks wereallowed, but his 134 miles per gallon was beaten. Officials brought out a "No coasting" rulingnext year, but he took an Austin 9 up to 85. 34 miles per gallon without tricks. Ignition trouble ruined his post war debut in the races atBathurst, N. S. W. , in 1945, and bad luck carne again at a later Bathurst meetingwhen a magneto became temperamental.

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He said that Jett's remains were instead being cremated, and that the family would leave the Bahamas with his ashes today. Mr. McSweeney told reporters he could not explain the reason for the decoy. The Bahamas has seen its share of celebrity deaths: Both actress Anna Nicole Smith and her 20 year old son Daniel died on the island and are buried there. After a seven week investigation, Ms. Smith's cause of death was deemed a combined drug intoxication; her son's cause of death, meanwhile, was reserved by a coroner. Intense scrutiny has focused on John Travolta's family after the death of the actor's chronically ill 16 year old son Jett, who died at the family's vacation home at a Grand Bahama resort on Friday. Yesterday, an undertaker said the death certificate concluded that the cause of death was a seizure, and that the teen's body showed no sign of head trauma despite earlier police reports that he hit his head on a bathtub. Mr. Travolta, 54, and wife Kelly Preston, 46, were spending New Year's with their son and eight year old daughter Ella Bleu at the luxury Old Bahama Bay resort community. In a statement issued last Friday, Grand Bahama Police Superintendent Basil Rahming said caregiver Jeff Kathrain found the stocky teen unconscious in the bathroom; he was later pronounced dead at Freeport's Rand Memorial Hospital.